| dc.description.abstract | This thesis investigates the probability of informed trading (PIN) during crisis periods across
the Norwegian, Swedish, and Danish stock exchanges. The focus is on the financial crisis
of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Utilizing the framework
of Hung and Lai (2022), this study examines the effectiveness of the technical analysis
indicators Moving Average Crossover (MAC) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence
(MACD) conducted on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The crises are sectioned into pre-, during,
and post-crisis periods, estimating PIN for each phase on the separate exchanges to identify
patterns across the different markets. Our results indicate a higher probability of informed
trading during the financial crises compared to the health or geopolitical crises, with various
PIN values observed among the Scandinavian markets. Furthermore, we investigate the
performance of technical analysis during periods of varying information asymmetry. The
findings suggest that using a MAC strategy before and during a financial crisis outperforms
a Buy-and-Hold (BH) strategy. However, there are no significant outperformance measures
for the health and geopolitical crises. The thesis contributes to the understanding of market
behavior during uncertainties in financial markets, highlighting the information asymmetry
in disruptive time periods. Despite having limitations, the research paves the way for future
research to refine our findings and explore further market contexts. | |
