| dc.description.abstract | Climate change poses significant uncertainties for the future of hydropower, both in terms of challenges and opportunities. This study uses an educational version of the HBV model to investigate climate change impact on the hydropower potential in Agder County over the next century. The results show that the model tends to overestimate the observed values, but results in a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 73.4\% for calibration and 77.7\% for validation with a correlation of 89.0\%. This indicates that the model's simplicity does not surpass its accuracy.
For annual discharge the study found that the RCP4.5 scenario predicted a 9\% increase close to 2100. The RCP8.5 scenario projected a more significant increase, starting around 2040 and reaching a projection of 18\% increase. Analysis of monthly discharge patterns revealed significant changes. There is a significant increase in the winter (November to April) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The summer months (May to October) will have reduced discharge for both scenarios. RCP8.5 will have a more significant change than RCP4.5 in all months. The discrepancies between mid- and late-century were particularly pronounced from January to April, indicating a substantial increase in discharge over the century. This suggests a shift towards warmer and wetter winters in Agder County, leading to reduced snow accumulation.
The observed trends in future discharge patterns underline the challenges and opportunities associated with hydropower production in the face of climate change. During periods of reduced discharge, it is crucial for Agder County to have sufficient water stored in reservoirs to meet the power demand. The increasing discharge during winter can also present opportunities for hydropower production. By optimizing existing power plants, consider expansions of waterways and aggregates, as well as increased generator performance, it will be achieved increased production and better utilization of the increasing winter discharge. | |
