A novel evaluation model for hybrid power system based on vague set and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory

Abstract

Because clean energy and traditional energy have different advantages and disadvantages, it is of great significance to evaluate comprehensive benefits for hybrid power systems. Based on thorough analysis of important characters on hybrid power systems, an index system including security, economic benefit, environmental benefit, and social benefit is established in this paper. Due to advantages of processing abundant uncertain and fuzzy information, vague set is used to determine the decision matrix. Convert vague decision matrix to real one by vague combination ruleand determine uncertain degrees of different indexes by grey incidence analysis, then the mass functions of different comment set in different indexes are obtained. Information can be fused in accordance with Dempster-Shafer (D-S) combination rule and the evaluation result is got by vague set and D-S evidence theory. A simulation of hybrid power system including thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic power in China is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed design scheme. It can be clearly seen that the uncertainties in decision making can be dramatically decreased compared with existing methods in the literature. The actual implementation results illustrate that the proposed index system and evaluation model based on vague set and D-S evidence theory are effective and practical to evaluate comprehensive benefit of hybrid power system.