The effects of subsidising e-bikes on mode share and physical activity - A natural experiment

Abstract

The promotion of increased cycling is a political goal in numerous countries due to its environmental and public health benefits. Initiatives to stimulate e-bike use, like subsidies, may be a relevant strategy. However, understanding of the effects of these subsidies remains limited. In the present study our aim was to investigate the short-term effects of subsidising e-bike purchases on mode share distribution, physical activity derived from daily travel, and overall levels of physical activity. Methods We used the 2020-subvention program in Oslo, Norway, as a natural experiment, employing a pre-post randomised group design. The trial group (N = 194) and control group (N = 2174) participated in a survey at two time points (in April and September 2021), which included a one-day travel diary and questions about physical activity over the previous week. Results Our findings revealed a significant 12.6 [7.2, 18.0] percentage point increase in bicycle mode share, followed by a decrease in the share of car and public transport usage of 10.1 [-15.9, −2.5] and 7.1 [-11.8, −2.4] percentage points. In terms of physical activity generated from daily travel, we observed a greater increase in e-cycling compared to the decrease in conventional cycling and walking, resulting in an overall rise in active transport. However, despite these findings, we did not detect a significant increase in overall physical activity resulting from this increased active mobility. Conclusion Initiatives such as subsidies for e-bikes may align with both environmental and public health goals, as the subvention led to an increase in the bicycle mode share and an overall rise in active transport. However, to assess the impact on overall physical activity, additional research utilising more precise measurements is needed.