Potential non-disasters of 2021

Abstract

Purpose: This short paper compiles some potential disasters that might not have happened in 2021 even though a major hazard occurred. No definitive statements are made of what did or did not transpire in each instance. Instead, the material offers a pedagogical and communications approach, especially to encourage deeper investigation and critique into what are and are not labelled as disasters and non-disasters—and the consequences of this labelling. Design/methodology/approach: This short paper adopts a subjective approach to describing situations in 2021 in which a hazard was evident, but a disaster might not have resulted. Brief explanations are provided with some evidence and reasoning, to be used in teaching and science communication for deeper examination, verification and critique. Findings: Examples exist in which hazards could have become disasters, but disasters might not have manifested, ostensibly due to disaster risk reduction. Reaching firm conclusions about so-called “non-disasters” is less straightforward. Originality/value: Many reports rank the seemingly worst disasters while research often compares a disaster investigated with the apparently worst disasters previously experienced. This short paper instead provides possible ways of teaching and communicating potential non-disasters. It offers an approach for applying lessons to encourage action on disaster risk reduction, while recognising challenges with the labels “non-disaster”, “success” and “positive news”.