Simulations of networked critical infrastructures

Abstract

Critical infrastructure (CI) refers to assets that are essential for the functioning of a society and economy, such as telecommunication/ICT; energy generation, transmission and distribution; financial sector; etc. CIs are tightly coupled, creating a complex system where failures propagate from a disrupted CI to other CIs, aggravating and prolonging the societal impact through cascading effects. This thesis extends a system dynamic model by Eliza Canzani describing how a failed critical infrastructure that cannot deliver products and services impacts other critical infrastructures, and how a critical infrastructure is affected when another critical infrastructure fails. The model is simply enough to influence mental models of crisis managers. It provides a high-level view of the dynamics of disruptive events in CIs, facilitating understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting cascading effects, hopefully aiding strategic planning for protection of CIs. Key words: Critical infrastructures, interdependencies, system dynamics modelling, epidemics modelling